Property Bubble to Burst?

Leon Gettler in The Age on bubbles, in particular the property bubble in Australia: Predicting when the property bubble will pop is bad for your mental health

Yale economist Robert Shiller says asset bubbles can be diagnosed the same way one would diagnose mental illness. Bubble symptoms include sharp increases in the price of an asset considerably higher than its underlying value; great public excitement; media frenzy; stories of people earning lots, causing envy among those who aren’t; growing interest in the asset class among the public where, for example, taxi drivers start talking to you about shares or property investments, and ”new-era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases.

Bubbles tipped to burst this year include China, gold, US Treasury bonds and, according to the Melbourne-based Land Values Research Group, Australian property.

Property Bubbling

More words on the strange nature of real estate in this land down under. Adam Schwab in Crikey: Big lie theory explains how the bubble inflates.

Why are seemingly rational people paying so much more for property than they did even as recently at 10 years ago? The main reason is most likely fear — this fear has been propagated by proponents of the “property lie” — the myth that property “never falls in value” and will be “more expensive next year”. Myriad property experts (usually, in some way related to the real estate industry) repeat the line and lazy journalists report their self-interested viewed unquestioningly.

Then there is another, less talked of factor that has caused otherwise rational people to pay far more for housing than they ever did before — that is, status. As Australia’s apparent wealth becomes greater, people inevitably become more materialistic. More so than ever, owning one’s home (rather than renting) is considered the major indicator that one has “made it”. Not only is owning a house a major status symbol — but the size and quality is also paramount.

So there appears to be a combination of factors underlying the bubble — easy finance, government policy, the desire for status and perhaps most importantly, a perceived shortage of property, which causes an inevitable bidding upwards of median prices as punters worry about missing out on their dream home.

Davidson on Public Private Partnerships

Kenneth Davidson in The Age on Public Private Partnerships: Flawed figures condemn our descendants to needless debt

OVER the past month, using information available from official sources, I have shown that just three infrastructure projects – the Children’s and Women’s hospitals and the Wonthaggi desalination plant – will cost Victorians (either as taxpayers or water users) an extra $8.3 billion over the next 25 to 30 years because they will be financed as public-private partnerships rather than by government borrowings.

Premier John Brumby is an unabashed enthusiast for what the Government calls ”Partnerships Victoria” – the ”warm and wet” name given to the flawed policy that got Victoria into this mess. His modus operandi is to shut down serious political debate about policies that threaten his pet projects.

He is helped by Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu running a pathetic law and order campaign in a desperate attempt to save his job when he has a potential political, fiscal and environmental scandal which he could ignite, providing he shows some leadership.