Category Archives: COP15

China’s Role at Copenhagen

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An interesting (and if true, rather depressing) perspective on what went on at Copenhagen from Mark Lynas at The Guardian: How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful “deal” so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China’s century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower’s freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.

Update: A valuable counterpoint is provided by Alex Pasternack at Treehugger: Why Blaming China for Copenhagen Won’t Help the Climate

China’s role at Copenhagen reminds us of the key issue dividing the developing and developed world: while it hurtles towards a clean tech economy, China, like other high-emitting developing nations, is laser-focused on its “right to develop.” And it expects the developed world to do much more to prevent climate change. Rightly so.

Ultimately, it was President Obama who seemed to keep talks alive. “I don’t want to mess around with this anymore, I want to just talk with Premier Wen,” he reportedly told a member of his staff as talks seemed to be devolving into an Upstairs-Downstairs farce (see also the President’s own account, from an interview with News Hour, at Dot Earth). Obama’s relationships with world leaders and his determination to get them to agree to something not only prevented back-tracking but kept intact some measure of good will. We need as much of that as possible as we continue trying to forge a climate agreement.

So what did Obama bring to Copenhagen? He offered cuts of 3-4% from 1990 levels (part of an average 11-19% overall reduction by other developed nations) by 2020. In fact, entering Copenhagen, no country seemed prepared to do anything near what scientists say is adequate to help combat climate change (cuts of 40% by 2020).

That makes the question of whether China held Copenhagen hostage moot. There was little to hold hostage, and no ransom to be won.

Ultimately, I left Copenhagen without bitterness or blame, but a head-numbing sense of confusion and conundrum. From the pile of debris left behind, I took these lessons:
- The world treated COP15 like a trade treaty, not a peace treaty.
- However powerful China may now be — or however powerful people wish to perceive it –the most powerful actor on the climate stage is the United States, led by President Obama.
- The fragile sense of trust exposed in the aftermath of Copenhagen cuts both ways.
- The leaders of the developing world have a lot to do. The developed world has to do more.

Post Copenhagen Wrap

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There is so much around the interwebs in response to the end of the Copenhagen Summit (COP15) that it is a bit overwhelming to blog about. Those things of interest that I can still recall/find follow…

Yarra Climate Action Now Copenhagen Analysis

Crikey – Copenhagen coming to a close: the end’s a scary place to start

Mostly it’s too hard to find the words to describe how I feel about climate change. This is even more so here in Copenhagen. Yesterday at a talk by George Monbiot he pointed out that climate change is too benign to describe what’s happening to the world … it’s like describing an invasion as “unexpected visitors”. To be young and alive today is to witness our earth breaking and see our “leaders” demonstrate a spectacular failure of leadership. As Alex Steffen wrote, “to be young and aware today is to see your elders as cannibals with golf clubs”.

CPD – The Road from Copenhagen | Thinking Points

Larvatus Prodeo – After Copenhagen

Climate Action Centre – A Climate Con – Analysis of the “Copenhagen Accord”

John Quiggin – Glass Half Full Department

Crikey – Copenhagen’s nasty negotiations (Clive Hamilton)

One of the lessons we Australians learned was that the American supremacism that underpinned the foreign policy approach of the neo-cons was not a Bush thing. Nor was it a Republican thing. It is an American thing, and the Democrats are just as likely to treat the rest of the world as a bunch of pissants as their GOP rivals. Stern proved this as Copenhagen. With the election of Barack Obama, no new era dawned in America.

But if all of this is too bleak, there was one spark of light. At a business fair in Copenhagen last week, Steven Chu, the US Energy Secretary, gave a Powerpoint presentation, one he had obviously given many times before.

He talked solely about technological possibilities, detailing the opportunities now opening up and the torrents of federal money being poured into the new energy industries. At the most senior levels, especially in the department of energy, the techno-geeks have taken over from the friends of the fossil fuel industry, and it is plain that, whatever happens to climate legislation in the US Congress or international treaties at Copenhagen, Obama appointees are going to use whatever levers they can to bring about a technological transformation in the eight years they have at the helm.

Crikey – Copenhagen: one, big, brutal reality check (Matthew Knott)

Copenhagen has offered the world a brutal reality check on the difficult road ahead in stopping runaway climate change. Perhaps, more than hope, that’s what we really needed anyway.

Paul Gilding on Copenhagen Failure

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An interesting perspective from Paul Gilding: Why Copenhagen will fail and why it doesn’t matter

You see we’re not ready to fix climate change, not yet. We have not accepted the scale of the problem. Nor have we established the political conditions necessary to fix the problem when we do. However Copenhagen does signify the shift between two eras and if you watch carefully you can see the new world emerging. That is the interesting thing happening at Copenhagen.

Here’s my top 4 trends we’re seeing in Copenhagen that tell us where we’ll go when we are ready [more detail given for each one in the article]

No one is in charge.
Angry Islanders.
The science won, the sceptics lost.
A dot com boom on steroids with military support.

Climate Action Centre: After Copenhagen

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A debriefing session post Copenhagen. Organised by the Climate Action Centre. Details on their website.

Special briefing and discussion on the outcomes of the Copenhagen climate negotiations

An opportunity to find out what happened at Copenhagen and what it means for Australia and the planet.

6.30 PM, Monday December 21
Climate Action Centre
Lvl 5, New Building

Victorian Trades Hall
cnr Lygon and Victoria sts
Carlton South

Join us for a drink and celebrate the end of the year and the achievements of the Victorian climate movement.

All Welcome

RSVP: 0419 253 342 or info@climateactioncentre.org

President Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives: Survival Treaty / Suicide Pact

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Survival Treaty / Suicide Pact speech by the President of the Maldives. Hopefully someone is listening. Full text follows…

Mr McKibben, fellow environmentalists, ladies and gentlemen,

Four years ago myself, and many fellow activists, sat in solitary confinement in Maldivian prison cells. We sat in those jail cells not because we had committed any wrong. We sat in those cells because we had deliberately broken the unjust laws of dictatorship. We had spoken out for a cause in which we believed. That cause was freedom and democracy.

There were times, sitting in that prison, when I felt more alone than you can imagine. There were times when I started to believe the doubters, who said the Maldives would never become free. Sometimes it felt like the doubters were right. The dictatorship had the guns, bombs and tanks. We had no weapons other than the power of our words, and the moral clarity of our cause. Many democracy activists like us had vanished, forgotten by history, their struggle a failure.

But, in spite of the odds, we refused to give up hope.We refused to listen to the voices of doubt and discouragement. We refused to be swayed by those who could not see that change was on the way. And we were right to stand up for what we believed.

We won our battle for democracy in the Maldives. I stand before you today as the first democratically elected President in the history of my country.

The path to democracy in the Maldives was not straight-forward. It was bumpy and full of turns. But we were determined that no matter how difficult the terrain, we would reach the end of the road. And we succeeded in our cause.

Four years later and a continent away, we meet here to confront another seemingly impossible task. We are here to save our planet from the silent, patient and invisible enemy that is climate change.

And just as there were doubters in the Maldives, so there are doubters in Copenhagen. There are those who tell us that solving climate change is impossible. There are those who tell us taking radical action is too difficult. There are those who tell us to give up hope.

Well, I am here to tell you that we refuse to give up hope. We refuse to be quiet.We refuse to believe that a better world isn’t possible.

I have three words to say to the doubters and deniers. Three words with which to win this battle. Just three words are all I need. You may already have heard them. Three – Five – Oh. Three – Five – Oh.

Three – Five – Oh, saves the coral reefs. Three – Five – Oh, keeps the Arctic frozen. Three – Five – Oh, ensures my country survives. Three – Five – Oh, makes a better world possible.

I am here to tell you that down the road in the Bella Center the Maldives team is fighting to keep Three – Five – Oh in the negotiating text.

They need all the help they can get from you. Please keep supporting them.

And the good news is that we are now part of a growing bloc of nations, all committed to keeping Three – Five – Oh as the central guiding goal of our global survival plan.

These nations need your help and support too.

I am not a scientist, but I know that one of the laws of physics, is that you cannot negotiate with the laws of physics. Three – Five – Oh is a law of atmospheric physics. You cannot cut a deal with Mother Nature. And we don’t intend to try.

This is why, in March, the Maldives announced plans to become the first carbon neutral country in the world. We intend to become carbon neutral in ten years. We will switch from oil to 100% renewable energy. And we will offset aviation pollution, until a way can be found to decarbonise air transport too.

For us, going carbon neutral is not just the right thing to do. We believe it is also in our economic self-interest. Countries that have the foresight to green their economies today, will be the winners of tomorrow. These pioneering countries will free themselves from the unpredictable price of foreign oil. They will capitalize on the new, green economy of the future. And they will enhance their moral standing, giving them greater political influence on the world stage. In the Maldives, we have relinquished our claim to high-carbon growth.

After all, it is not carbon we want, but development. It is not coal we want, but electricity. It is not oil we want, but transport. Low-carbon technologies now exist, to deliver all the goods and services we need. Let us make the goal of using them.

Let us make the goal of reaching that all-important number: three – five – oh.

We believe that if the Maldives can become carbon neutral; richer, larger countries can follow. But if there is one thing I know about politicians, it’s that they won’t act until their electorates act first. This is where you come in.

History shows us the power of peaceful protest. From the civil rights movement, to Gandhi’s Quit India campaign; non-violent protest can create change. Protest worked in the struggle for democracy in the Maldives. And on 24 October, we saw how protests across the world put Three – Five – Oh firmly on the Copenhagen agenda.

My message to you is to continue the protests. Continue after Copenhagen. Continue despite the odds. And eventually, together, we will reach that crucial number: Three – five – oh.

In all political agreements, you have to be prepared to negotiate. You have to be prepared to compromise; to give and take. That is the nature of politics. But physics isn’t politics. On climate change, there are things on which we cannot negotiate. There are scientific bottom lines that we have to respect. We know what the laws of physics say. And I think you know too.

The most important number in the world. The most important number you’ll ever hear. The most important number you’ll ever say. These three words: Three – five – oh. (Three – five – oh) (Three – five – oh)

Bill McKibben: No time for tears in Copenhagen

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A sobering piece from Bill McKibben: No time for tears in Copenhagen

I’ve spent the last few years working more than fulltime to organize the first big global grassroots climate change campaign. That’s meant shutting off my emotions most of the time—this crisis is so terrifying that when you let yourself feel too deeply it can be paralyzing. Hence, much gallows humor, irony, and sheer work.

On one side: scientists. And archbishops, Nobelists, and most of all ordinary people in ordinary places. Reason and faith. On the other side, power—the kind of power that will be assembling in the Bella Center all week to hammer out some kind of agreement. The kind of power, exemplified by the American delegation, that so far has decided it’s not worth making the kind of leap that the science demands. The kind of power that’s willing to do what’s politically pretty easy, but not what’s necessary. The kind that would condemn the planet to 770 ppm rather than take the hard steps we need.

So no more tears. Not now, not while there’s work to be done. Pass the Diet Coke, fire up the laptop, grab the cellphone. To work. We may not have done enough, but we’re going to do all we can.

Walk Against Warming, Global Day of Action

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A massive turnout according to the ABC: Massive turnout for Walk Against Warming.

More from Reuters: Australians walk to pressure Copenhagen.

In Melbourne, where the largest protest was held, marchers closed the event by spelling out the words ‘Safe Climate – Do It!’ on the ground. Organizers said aerial photographs were taken and sent to delegates in Copenhagen.

Police contacted by Reuters declined to give figures for the protests, confirming only that the Melbourne protest numbered in the thousands. However, organizers told Reuters police at the scene had told them the official police estimate was 40,000.

Photos from Environment Victoria on Flickr. Photos from AAP.

Tuvalu at Copenhagen

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The goings on at Copenhagen are too numerous to blog about here, especially given the comprehensive coverage elsewhere. However, heartfelt congratulations to the efforts of those from Tuvalu in pushing for a meaningful outcome!

Per Climate Progress

At this morning’s plenary session of the Copenhagen climate negotiations, the tiny island nation of Tuvalu called for strengthening the Kyoto Protocol to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, rather than the current standard of 2 ° C. Their proposal to amend the Kyoto Protocol with a new, legally binding agreement to set a target of 350 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere fractured the session, as Tuvalu was supported by other small island states and poor nations in Africa, but was opposed by fifteen richer developing nations, including Saudi Arabia, China, and India. Stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations at 350 ppm would be 25 percent above pre-industrial levels, but is 10 percent below the present concentration of 390 ppm, so the targets would require significant and immediate reductions in emissions from both developed and developing nations. Tuvalu negotiator Ian Fry told the conference that “our future rests on the outcome of this meeting.”

Gorbachev on climate change

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Mikhail Gorbachev in The Age on climate change and Copenhagen: Deadlock must be broken in Copenhagen

Decision-makers have not faced up to just how close the world may be to the climate “tipping point”. But, while a runaway climate remains a risk, runaway politics are already a fact. Official negotiations are removed from reality. According to the latest science, the current proposals under negotiation will result in warming of more than 4 degrees this century – double the 2-degree maximum endorsed by the G8 and other leaders. That leaves a higher than 50 per cent probability of the world’s climate moving past its tipping point.

To move forward, the Copenhagen meeting must break the political deadlock between industrialised and developing states. Climate injustice must be redressed, as developing countries bear the brunt of the impact. Rich countries need to put serious money on the table. Claims that they lack the needed resources ring hollow, as trillions of dollars were found in the financial crisis.

Sensible risk management today dictates that atmospheric carbon should be stabilised at 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent, not the current pathway of 450-500 ppm. This requires emission reductions of 45 to 50 per cent in industrialised countries by 2020, and almost complete de-carbonisation by 2050, not the levels of 15 to 25 per cent by 2020 and 60 to 80 per cent by 2050 that are now on the table.

These days, Gorbachev works for Green Cross International, an organisation committed to ensuring a sustainable future that he founded in 1993.

350 Copenhagen Vigils

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There are a number of 350.org inspired Copenhagen Vigils being held around Melbourne. Details here.

Local events include (current at time of posting):

Vigil in Melbourne

12 December 2009 – 9:00pm – 9:30pm
Come and join the GetUp Melbourne team and other like-minded people for a candle-light vigil. We will be assembling at 9pm on the 12th to show we care. We want a Fair, Ambitous and Binding agreement at Copenhagen, so come to City Square and have a FAB time! Bring posters, signs, and of course, candles.
This will mark the end of the day of action, with the Walk Against Warming happening during the day.

Vigil in Northcote

12 December 2009 – 6:00pm – 10:00pm
Carols in All Nations, All Nations Park, Northcote
Bring a picnic, your best signing voice and celebrate Christmas with your community. Featuring Massed Community Choir, market and more. This year, as part of a global candlelight vigil we will be asking all attending to light Candles for Copenhagen. Candles available for purchase or bring your own.
Main Program (including Reflection on the theme of Climate Change) from 8pm.
Why not travel green? Walk, ride or catch Tram 86, the train to Northcote Station or Bus 508. Bike Valet will be available thanks to Human Powered Cycles. Don’t forget your bike lights!

Vigil in Coburg

11 December 2009 – 5:00pm – 11:00pm
We’re combining the candle light vigil with a street christmas party, market stalls, live music and circus performance EXTRAVAGANZA. Market stalls, music and candle light vigil on friday night. fun, games, market stalls all day saturday.
We’re inviting all our neighbours AND enviro aware creative types from around Melbourne. Free tastings of micro brewed beer available.

Also, via Avaaz, some festive singing for the one and only Martin Ferguson MP

Time: Friday, December 11 at 09:00 AM
Venue:: In front ot the offfice of Martin Ferguson MP
Place: 159 High St Preston, Preston, State of Victoria, Australia
Host: Petrina Barson
This will be a singing vigil outside the office of Martin Ferguson MP, federal member for Batman and minister for resources. We will be there all day from 9 to 5 singing (really easy) modified Christmas carols (“we all want ambitious targets… and we won’t go until we get some, we won’t go until we get some…) to get the message through to our local MP that the pressure’s on from his constituents and their friends that we want real action at Copenhagen. Come along whether you think you can sing or not (!), come for part of the time or all of the time. Please indicate when you sign up what time slot you plan to come for.

Ride Planet Earth

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Ride Planet Earth bike ride, Sunday 6 December, 1pm, Melbourne Museum car park (Nicholson St, Carlton) andride to Edinburgh Gardens (St Georges Rd, Nth Fitzroy). Music and speakers after the ride. See www.rideplanetearth.org

Update: Perfect day for a ride. Turned a few heads on Brunswick Street. Thanks to the organisers!

Photos follow…